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Market Overview – Early January 2025
Steel Market Overview – Early January 2025
SCRAP
The AMM shredded scrap index for Chicago was down $13/GT in mid Dec ’24 settling just under $368/GT. The index is down $104/GT from the ‘24 high achieved in Jan ’24. Scrap prices consistently eroded throughout ‘24 based on softening export and domestic demand and generally available supply. A strong US$ may also be contributing to lower scrap prices. Some market participants are expecting scrap prices to increase modestly in early Jan ‘25.
CARBON PLATE
Mill lead times are 3-5 weeks from the West Coast and are 7-9 weeks when rail is included from mills East of the Rockies. North American plate mills have steadily dropped carbon plate prices over the past 12 months. Nucor announced a $100/ton price decrease for plate in Oct ’24. Overall, plate prices have decreased $480/ton since the start of ’24 to mid-Dec ’24. Some market participants expect price increases in Q1 ‘25 based on anticipated Trump administration tariffs.
HOT ROLL SHEET
Mill lead times are 4-6 weeks from the West Coast and range between 6-8 weeks for delivery from mills East of the Rockies to the West Coast. Domestic hot roll coil prices have steadily decreased from Jan ’24 to mid Jul ’24 posting an overall price drop of $387/ton. However, since mid Jul ’24 hot roll coils prices have increased by nearly $92/ton and are holding into Jan ‘25. Some market participants are forecasting price increases as consumers return to mills to restock.
HSS TUBE
Tube mill rolling cycles are 4-6 weeks for West Coast tube mills. Domestic tube mills have steadily decreased prices throughout the course of ’24 by roughly $650/ton. Tube price decreases from the mill represent the largest price decrease of all other carbon steel products in ’24. After such a significant price deterioration in ’24, tube prices have been relatively flat for the last 5 weeks. The premium for mill tube prices over that of hot roll coil, the raw material to manufacturer tube, has also compressed significantly. In early Jan ’24, the mill price spread for tube over hot roll coil was roughly $487/ton compared to $213/ton in early Jan ‘25. It is widely believed that if mill hot roll coil prices increase, then mill tube prices will follow.
MERCHANT BAR
Lead times are roughly 4-6 weeks for most mill rolling cycles on the West Coast. Domestic merchant bar mills decreased prices 3 times in ’24, with the largest price decrease of $120/ton coming from Nucor in Oct ’24. Merchant bar pricing has remained unchanged since the Oct ’24 price decrease. Some market participants would suggest that rising scrap prices would be the catalyst for a merchant bar mill price increase over the next quarter.
BEAM
Lead times are roughly 7-9 weeks for West Coast delivery. Domestic beam mills increased prices by $50/ton in early Jan ’24, then followed up with an $80/ton price decrease by the end of Q1 ’24. Published prices from domestic mills have remained unchanged for 10 months. Domestic beam mills have been reported as making deals below the published price when circumstances warrant.
REBAR
Lead times are roughly 4-6 weeks from West Coast rebar mills. Domestic rebar mills decreased prices by $10/ton from mid Nov ’24 to mid-Dec ’24. Domestic rebar prices have deteriorated by roughly $160/ton since the start of ’24.
MARKET
After steady price decreases for all carbon steel products in ’24, domestic mill prices appear to have stabilized over the last few weeks through early Jan ’25 as the market awaits additional information. Market participants are digesting a number of factors to determine price direction in the near future including if stagnant demand in ’24 will improve in ‘25, the influence of anticipated Trump Administration steel tariffs, pace of interest rate changes and the strength of the US$. According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the manufacturing sector contracted in Dec ’24 for the 9th straight month. ISM indicates domestic manufacturing contracted month over month with an index of 49.3 in Dec ’24, which was up from 48.4 in Nov ’24. The ISM New Orders and Production indexes expanded at 52.5 and 50.3 respectively in Dec ’24 vs. 50.4 and 46.8 in Nov ‘24. ISM readings greater than 50 signal expansion. According to the US Dept. of Labor, nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 in Nov ‘24 and the unemployment rate remained near 4.2%. Payroll increases are expected to continue. The US Dept. of Commerce indicated that real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded in Q3 ’24 by 3.1% and by 3.0% in Q2 ’24. US GDP rates for Q4 ’24 and ‘25 are expected to continue to expand.
Sources Include: US Labor & Commerce Departments, Domestic Steel Mills, Scrap Processors, Steel Consumers, ISM, AMM, SMU
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