News & Announcements
Market Overview – Late May 2025
Steel Market Overview – Late May 2025
STEEL TARIFF
Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs of 25% took effect on March 12th for all imports to the US. The 25% steel and aluminum tariff currently apply to all countries as prior Section 232 exclusions and quotas established in 2018 have been suspended. Section 232 steel tariffs are also expected to apply to downstream steel fabrication and other derivative products. Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs are not expected to be combined with President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announced on Apr 2nd.
SCRAP
Heavy melt scrap for Chicago was down $40/GT in early May ’25, settling at $315/GT. Heavy melt scrap prices in the Midwest are down $70/GT from the ’25 high price achieved in Mar ‘25. Scrap prices decreased in May ’25 as expected. US West Coast export prices were up $6/GT in late May ’25 after declining roughly $27/GT in late Apr ’25. Scrap prices are not expected to change significantly in the coming month.
CARBON PLATE
Mill lead times are 4-5 weeks from the West Coast and are roughly 8-9 weeks when rail is included from mills East of the Rockies. Nucor, SSAB, Evraz and Cliffs raised prices through a series of announcements by $300 – $360/ton from Jan through Mar ’25. According to plate indexes, prices have eased by $80/ton since late Mar ’25. Some market participants expect plate pricing to remain flat or decrease slightly over the next month.
HOT ROLL SHEET
Mill lead times are 4-6 weeks from the West Coast and range between 8-9 weeks for delivery from mills East of the Rockies to the West Coast. Domestic hot roll coil/sheet mills increased prices sharply between Jan and Mar ‘25 moving indexes up over $280/ton while Nucor’s Coil Spot Price (CSP) was up $185/ton over the same period. Since late Apr ’25, hot roll coil/sheet mill indexes have decreased over $90/ton and the CSP has reduced $65/ton over (5) weekly decreases. Some market participants expect plate pricing to remain flat or decrease slightly over the next month.
HSS TUBE
Tube mill rolling cycles are 4-6 weeks for West Coast tube mills. Domestic tube mills issued (5) price increases since the start of the year totaling $500/ton far outpacing hot roll coil cost input changes. However, since mid Apr ’25, some tube prices have decreased prices by roughly $15/ton with more decreases expected in the coming month. Import tube offers are competitive to the West Coast even when the 25% tariff is included in context of how high domestic tube prices pushed up in Q1 ’25.
MERCHANT BAR
Lead times are roughly 4-6 weeks for most mill rolling cycles on the West Coast. Domestic merchant bar mills announced (2) price increases of $60/ton in mid Feb ’25 and $40/ton in mid Mar ’25. Merchant bar prices have yet to return to the ’24 price level established before domestic mills dropped prices by $120/ton in Oct ’24. Merchant bar prices have remained stable since mid Mar ’25 and are not expected to change in the coming month.
BEAM
Beam lead times are roughly 7-9 weeks for West Coast delivery. There are some reports that mill floor stock is not as abundant as it was at the start of the year. After a relatively flat ’24, domestic beam mills announced (2) price increases including a $35/ton increase in mid Mar ’25 and a $25/ton increase in Apr ’25. Beams prices are not expected to change in the coming month.
REBAR
Lead times are roughly 4-6 weeks from West Coast rebar mills. After domestic rebar mills decreased prices by roughly $160/ton over the course of ’24, domestic mills increased prices by $30/ton between Jan and Feb ’25, then announced a $40/ton price increase in mid Feb ’25. There are some reports of domestic mill pricing for the West Coast retreating modestly in Apr ’25.
MARKET
Domestic mill prices are starting to settle in after the shock of 25% steel tariffs were announced and implemented in Q1 ’25. Steel prices for all product groups moved higher between Jan and Mar ’25. However, domestic prices for plate, sheet and tube have retreated between Apr and May ‘25. According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the manufacturing sector contracted in Apr ’25 for the second consecutive month. ISM indicates domestic manufacturing contracted month-over-month with an index of 48.7 in Apr ‘25, which was down from 49.0 in Mar ’25. The ISM New Orders index contracted at 47.2 in Apr ’25, up from 45.2 in Mar ’25. The Production index contracted at 44.0 in Apr ‘25, down from 48.3 in Mar ’25. ISM readings greater than 50 signal expansion. According to the US Dept. of Labor, non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in Apr ‘25 and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2% from Mar ‘25. The US Dept. of Commerce indicated that real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in Q1 ’25 at an annualized rate of .3% while GDP expanded in Q4 ’24 by 2.4%, Q3 ’24 by 3.1% and 3.0% in Q2 ’24. US GDP rates are expected to remain under pressure in Q2 ’25.
Sources Include: US Labor & Commerce Departments, Domestic Steel Mills, Scrap Processors, Steel Consumers, ISM, AMM, SIMA, SMU, American Iron and Steel Institute, International Trade Administration
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