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Market Overview – Mid February 2025
Steel Market Overview – Mid February 2025
TARIFF
On Feb 1st, the Trump Administration announced extraordinary new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. The tariffs amounted to 25% on all imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on Chinese imports. The tariffs were set to take effect Tuesday Feb 4th. On Mon Feb 3rd, the 25% tariffs for all imports from Mexico and Canada were delayed for (1) month while talks resumed. However, the new 10% tariffs on all imports from China went into effect on Tuesday Feb 4th. It is unknown if 10% tariffs on China will change or if the 25% tariffs on Mexico or Canada will be fully or partially implemented a month from now. If the new tariffs are implemented, then not only will steel commodities be affected, but so will steel related fabricated and machine value added parts.
On Feb 9th, President Trump announced he would be imposing a 25% tariff focused on steel and aluminum from all sources. According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), over 20% of all the steel consumed in the past 12 months in the US was imported. According to the International Trade Administration’s U.S. Steel Import Monitor over 24 million tons of finished and semi-finished steel products were imported into the US over the last 12 months. On Feb 10th, President Trump implemented the 25% tariff focused on steel and aluminum with an effective date of Mar 4th. No current exceptions or exclusions for any country or any product are known to exist. Exclusions and quotas from the 2018 Section 232 steel tariffs have been rescinded so the new 25% tariff will apply to all countries including Canada and Mexico. Some downstream steel products are also expected to be included in the new steel tariffs. It is unknown if the President will maintain or delay the Mar 4th effective date for any or all countries or specialty products. The top steel imports by country to the US were as follows:
| Country | Metric Tons of US Steel Imports Last 12 Months |
| Canada | 5,475,253 |
| Brazil | 3,746,872 |
| Mexico | 2,911,323 |
| South Korea | 2,450,779 |
| Vietnam | 1,144,357 |
| Japan | 1,025,103 |
| Germany | 962,579 |
| Taiwan | 873,370 |
| Netherlands | 530,773 |
| China | 487,548 |
The top steel product groups imported into the US over the past 12 months were as follows:
| Product Groups | Metric Tons of US Steel Imports Last 12 Months |
| Flat (Carbon and Alloy Plate/Flat-Roll) | 9,975,192 |
| Semi-Finished (Carbon and Alloy Slab/Billet) | 5,085,956 |
| Long (Carbon and Alloy MBQ/Beam/Rebar/etc.) | 4,460,018 |
| Pipe and Tube (Carbon and Alloy) | 4,088,595 |
| Stainless | 967,338 |
| Other (Carbon and Alloy) | 14,277 |
| Total | 24,591,376 |
SCRAP
The AMM shredded scrap index for Chicago was up $55/GT in mid Feb ’25, settling just under $442/GT. The index is at its highest point since early Sep ’24 and starting to close in on the high point of last year of $471/GT achieved in Jan ’24. Scrap prices increased in Feb ’25 as expected and some market participants are expecting another increase between now and mid Mar ‘25.
CARBON PLATE
Mill lead times are 4-5 weeks from the West Coast and are roughly 8-9 weeks when rail is included from mills East of the Rockies. North American plate mills steadily dropped carbon plate prices throughout ’24, but have done an about face in the last two weeks. Nucor announced (2) plate price increases implementing a $60/ton increase in late Jan ’25 and a $40/ton price increase in early Feb ’25, for a total plate price increase of $100/ton. Other mills including Cliffs, Evraz and SSAB have also issued recent price increases. Some mills have cited increased demand and are starting to lengthen their lead times. Some market participants expect another price increase if incoming mill orders continue to expand.
HOT ROLL SHEET
Mill lead times are 4-6 weeks from the West Coast and range between 8-9 weeks for delivery from mills East of the Rockies to the West Coast. Domestic hot roll coil prices steadily decreased from Jan ’24 to mid Jul ’24 posting an overall price drop of $387/ton. However, since mid Jul ’24 to mid Feb ’25 hot roll coil prices have increased by roughly $123/ton. Independent indexes and the Nucor Coil Spot Price (CSP) have increased over the last (3) consecutive weeks with one index moving up roughly $55/ton and Nucor’s CSP increasing $40/ton marking. Some market participants are forecasting additional price movements based on the uncertainty of trade policy and a forecasted increase in scrap prices. Overall hot-roll mill capacity appears able to support current demand, but should 25% tariffs apply to steel from Canada and Mexico, then domestic mills may see a surge in orders extending lead times.
HSS TUBE
Tube mill rolling cycles are 4-6 weeks for West Coast tube mills. Domestic tube mills steadily decreased prices throughout the course of ’24 by roughly $650/ton. As expected, domestic tube mills issued price increases over the last month. The Jan ’25 tube price increase amounted to $40/ton and the early Feb ’25 tube price increase amounted to $60/ton for a total tube price increase of $100/ton. Some market participants believe tube mills issued a collective $100/ton price increase to not only absorb the recent hot roll coil price changes, since coil is the primary raw material to manufacture tube, but to also expand the spread between a historically low difference between hot roll coil and tube.
MERCHANT BAR
Lead times are roughly 4-6 weeks for most mill rolling cycles on the West Coast. Domestic merchant bar mills decreased prices 3 times in ’24, with the largest price decrease of $120/ton coming from Nucor in Oct ’24. Merchant bar pricing has remained unchanged since the Oct ’24 price decrease. However, some merchant bar mills are starting to telegraph that a price increase may be in the works over the coming month pointing to higher scrap prices as the justification.
BEAM
Lead times are roughly 7-9 weeks for West Coast delivery. Published prices from domestic mills have remained unchanged for 11 months. Beam imports were still available below domestic prices through Jan ‘25, but the announced 25% steel tariff announced in Feb ’25 would likely change the competitive landscape making beam imports less attractive.
REBAR
Lead times are roughly 4-6 weeks from West Coast rebar mills. Domestic rebar prices deteriorated by roughly $160/ton over the course of ’24. In a recent change, some domestic rebar mills announced a price increase of $30/ton in mid Jan ’25. However, some market participants identified that the Jan ’25 price increase may have not have been fully applied to all markets. Domestic mills announced an additional $40/ton price increase in mid Feb ’25 as was expected due to rising scrap prices.
MARKET
Mill prices for plate, sheet and tube have all increased in the past month. Some variables that impact steel prices include raw material changes, overall steel demand, the uncertainty surrounding the Trump Administration tariffs, pace of interest rate changes and the strength of the US$. In mid Feb ’25, increased scrap prices may be the catalyst for merchant bar and rebar mills to increase prices. Demand appears to be improving for plate products. In addition to plate, a 25% steel tariff would certainly improve domestic demand for other steel products over the near term. The new 10% tariffs are in place for all goods in China, which also impacts value added items, while the new 25% steel tariffs applying to all countries takes effect on Mar 4th. US interest rates were left unchanged at the Fed’s last meeting in late Jan ’25 with a current federal funds rate of 4.15% – 4.5%. The US$ continues to strengthen against other major currencies, which could dampen rising commodity prices over the long term. According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the manufacturing sector expanded in Jan ’25 for the 1st month after a year of monthly contractions. ISM indicates domestic manufacturing contracted month over month with an index of 50.3 in Jan ’25, which was up from 49.3 in Dec ’24. The ISM New Orders and Production indexes expanded at 55.1 and 52.5 respectively in Jan ’25 vs. 52.1 and 49.9 in Dec ‘24. ISM readings greater than 50 signal expansion. According to the US Dept. of Labor, nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000 in Jan ‘25 and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.0%. The US Dept. of Commerce indicated that real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded in Q4 ’24 at 2.3% through advanced estimates, while Q3 ’24 expanded by 3.1% and 3.0% in Q2 ’24. US GDP rates for Q1 ‘25 are expected to continue to expand.
Sources Include: US Labor & Commerce Departments, Domestic Steel Mills, Scrap Processors, Steel Consumers, ISM, AMM, SIMA, SMU, American Iron and Steel Institute, International Trade Administration
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