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Market Overview – Mid March 2025
Steel Market Overview – Mid March 2025
STEEL TARIFF
On Mar 12th steel and aluminum tariffs of 25% took effect on all imports to the US. The 25% tariff focused on steel and aluminum applies to all countries as prior Section 232 exclusions and quotas established in 2018 have been suspended.
GENERAL TARIFF
On Feb 1st the Trump Administration announced extraordinary new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. The tariffs amounted to 25% on all imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on Chinese imports. The tariffs were set to take effect Feb 4th. On Feb 3rd, the 25% tariffs for all imports from Mexico and Canada were delayed for (1) month while talks resumed. However, the new 10% tariffs on all imports from China went into effect on Feb 4th. On Feb 27th the Trump Administration reaffirmed plans to implement the 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada. The Trump Administration increased the new 10% tariffs on China to 20% effective Mar 4th. On Mar 5th the Trump Administration ordered a one-month delay for tariffs related to the auto industry from Mexico and Canada. On Mar 6th the Trump Administration further delayed the 25% tariffs applying to Mexico and Canada until Apr 2nd for goods in compliance with the current USMCA agreement. Some market participants expect that should the general 25% tariff be implemented on Mexico and Canada that it would stack on top of the existing steel and aluminum tariffs implemented on Mar 12th.
SCRAP
The AMM shredded scrap index for Chicago was up $37/GT in mid Mar ’25, settling just above $479/GT. The index is at its highest point since mid Apr ’23 when it closed at $515/GT. Scrap prices increased in Mar ’25 as expected. The outlook for scrap prices is mixed with some market participants projecting a sideways move over the next month. US export prices from the West Coast have not followed Midwest prices up over the last (2) months.
CARBON PLATE
Mill lead times are 4-5 weeks from the West Coast and are roughly 8-9 weeks when rail is included from mills East of the Rockies. Some North American plate mills remained closed for spot business until May and/or June booking windows open. Nucor announced (3) plate price increases implementing a $60/ton increase in late Jan ’25, a $40/ton price increase in early Feb ’25 and a $160/ton in late Feb ‘25, for a total plate price increase of $260/ton. Other mills including Cliffs, Evraz and SSAB have also issued recent price increases at similar levels. Plate price indexes are up roughly $360/ton since the start of the year. Most market participants expect Nucor to announce another price increase when they open their May production books for spot business.
HOT ROLL SHEET
Mill lead times are 4-6 weeks from the West Coast and range between 8-9 weeks for delivery from mills East of the Rockies to the West Coast. Domestic hot roll coil prices have steadily increased since the start of the year with the AMM index up $233/ton over 11 weeks and Nucor’s Coil Spot Price (CSP) up $180/ton in 8 weeks. Some market participants expect coil prices to increase further should the general tariffs of 25% be applied to Mexico and Canada on Apr 2nd creating a tariff stacking event on the already in place 25% steel and aluminum tariffs.
HSS TUBE
Tube mill rolling cycles are 4-6 weeks for West Coast tube mills. Domestic tube mills have issued (5) price increases since the start of the year totaling $500/ton. The last (2) tube mill price increases were $150/ton each, occurring in late Feb ’25 and mid Mar ’25. Domestic tube mills have increased prices so fast that import tube prices with the 25% steel tariff are less expensive. Prior to the (5) price increases by domestic mills, domestic tube prices were at their lowest point since Oct ’20.
MERCHANT BAR
Lead times are roughly 4-6 weeks for most mill rolling cycles on the West Coast. Domestic merchant bar mills announced (2) price increases of $60/ton in mid Feb ’25 and $40/ton in mid Mar ’25. Merchant bar prices have yet to return to the ’24 price level established before domestic mills dropped prices by $120/ton in Oct ’24.
BEAM
Lead times are roughly 7-9 weeks for West Coast delivery. Published prices from domestic mills had remained unchanged for 11 months until domestic beam mills implemented a $35/ton price increase in mid Mar ’25. Domestic beam mills also communicated to buyers a suspension of any off-book price discounting. Beam imports including the 25% steel tariff can still be sourced below domestic beam prices albeit on fewer available offers.
REBAR
Lead times are roughly 4-6 weeks from West Coast rebar mills. After domestic rebar mills decreased prices by roughly $160/ton over the course of ’24, domestic mills announced a $40/ton price increase in mid Feb ’25.
MARKET
Mill prices for all steel products have increased in early ’25, but not all at the same rates. Rebar and Beam price increases have been relatively modest while Tube, Sheet and Plate have had more significant price increases. The 25% steel tariffs have been a catalyst for domestic mills to increase prices. Some believe that if the additional 25% general tariff is applied to Mexico and Canada on Apr 2nd, then domestic steel prices will rise further. According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the manufacturing sector expanded in Feb ’25 for the 2nd consecutive month after a year of monthly contractions. ISM indicates domestic manufacturing expanded month over month with an index of 50.3 in Feb ‘25, which was down from 50.9 in Jan ’25. The ISM New Orders index contracted at 48.1 in Feb ’25, down from 55.1 in Jan ’25. The Production index expanded at 50.7, down from 52.5 in Jan ’25. ISM readings greater than 50 signal expansion. According to the US Dept. of Labor, nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 in Feb ‘25 and the unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.1%. The US Dept. of Commerce indicated that real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded in Q4 ’24 at 2.3%, while Q3 ’24 expanded by 3.1% and 3.0% in Q2 ’24. US GDP rates are expected to slow for Q1 ‘25 with some forecasting a quarterly contraction.
Sources Include: US Labor & Commerce Departments, Domestic Steel Mills, Scrap Processors, Steel Consumers, ISM, AMM, SIMA, SMU, American Iron and Steel Institute, International Trade Administration
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