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Market Overview – Early March 2026
Steel Market Overview – Early March 2026
STEEL TARIFF
Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs of 25% took effect on Mar 12th ’25 for all imports to the US. The 25% steel and aluminum tariff applied to all countries as prior Section 232 exclusions and quotas established in 2018 were suspended. As of Jun 4, ’25, Section 232 steel tariffs were increased to 50%, with the UK maintaining a 25% rate. In August ’25, hundreds of downstream “derivative” products including industrial machinery and consumer goods made from steel and/or aluminum were added to the 50% tariff list. The US Supreme Court ruled in Feb ’26 that tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), also known as “reciprocal tariffs” were unlawful. The IEEPA or “reciprocal” tariff ruling does not impact Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs which remain in effect.
SCRAP
Heavy melt scrap for Chicago was up $30/GT in early Feb ’26, settling at $395/GT. Heavy melt scrap prices in the Midwest are up $80/GT from the ’25 low point. US West Coast export prices were up $47/GT in mid Feb ‘26 after declining roughly $23/GT in mid Nov ’25. Domestic steel mill outputs are increasing in ’26 along with mill utilization rates. Some market participants expect scrap prices to remain elevated over the coming month.
CARBON PLATE
Mill lead times are 5-6 weeks from the West Coast and are roughly12-13 weeks when rail is included from mills East of the Rockies. Nucor, SSAB, OSM and Cliffs have all raised prices through multiple announcements by $100-$110/ton in Jan and Feb ’26. According to plate indexes, prices have increased by $160/ton since mid Nov ’25. Based on how strong demand is from domestic plate mills East of the Rockies and a lack of plate imports, some market participants expect plate pricing to increase again in the coming months.
HOT ROLL SHEET
Mill lead times are 8 weeks from the West Coast and range between 8-10 weeks for delivery from mills East of the Rockies to the West Coast. Some market participants report that there are no spot tons available from the West Cost flat roll mill in either Apr or May ’26. Domestic hot roll coil/sheet mills increased prices sharply from the ’25 low point in late Sep ’25 through early Mar ‘26 moving indexes up over $220/ton. Nucor’s Coil Spot Price (CSP) was up $130/ton over the same period. Hot roll coil has exceeded $1,000/ton FOB Midwest Domestic mills in early Mar ’26 for the first time since early Feb ‘25. Some market participants expect coil pricing to increase further in the coming months.
HSS TUBE
Tube mill rolling cycles are 4-6 weeks for West Coast tube mills. Domestic tube mills issued (3) price increases since the start of the year totaling $180/ton. Prices for Domestic tube appear to be higher from mills East of the Rockies based on strong demand vs. West Coast tube mills. Import tube offers are competitive to the West Coast even when the 50% tariff is included in context to how high domestic tube prices have pushed up in Q1 ’26. Additional tube imports are expected to arrive throughout ’26.
MERCHANT BAR
Lead times are roughly 5-7 weeks for most mill rolling cycles for West Coast mills. Mill floor stock is not as available as it was through most of ’25, forcing customers to order against future mill rollings to ensure supply. Domestic merchant bar mills announced a price increase of $50/ton in Jan ’26. Merchant bar prices have increased $190/ton since the low point of ’25 reached in early Jan ’25, but are still below the high point of ’24. Merchant bar prices may increase further in Q2 ’26 based on rising cost inputs, strong demand and anticipated higher energy/oil costs.
BEAM
Beam lead times are roughly 10-12 weeks for West Coast delivery when rail is factored in. Domestic mill floor stock is sparse, leaving mill buyers to book future rollings to ensure supply. Domestic beam mills announced (2) price increases for a total of $120/ton in Jan and Feb ’26. Beams prices steadily increased by $295/ton since late Mar ’25 and are not expected to decrease in the coming months based on strong demand. Import beam prices are competitive even with the 50% import tariff with increasing offshore tonnage expected to arrive throughout ’26.
REBAR
Lead times are roughly 4-6 weeks from West Coast rebar mills. Domestic rebar mills increased prices by $30/ton in Jan ’26 and a total of $60/ton since early Nov ’25. There are some reports of domestic mill pricing to increase further based on rising cost inputs, strong demand and anticipated higher energy/oil costs.
MARKET
Domestic mill prices are rebounding from their ’25 midyear low points as Section 232 tariffs have limited overall import volumes, domestic demand is improving and raw material mill inputs are increasing. Steel prices for all product groups moved higher between Jan and Mar ’26. According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the manufacturing sector expanded in Feb ’26 for the second consecutive month. ISM indicates domestic manufacturing expanded month- over-month with an index of 52.4 in Feb ‘26, which was down from 52.6 in Jan ’26. The ISM New Orders index expanded to 55.8 in Feb ’26, down from 57.1 in Jan ’26. The Production index expanded to 53.5 in Feb ‘26, down from 55.9 in Jan ’26. ISM readings greater than 50 signal expansion. According to the US Dept. of Labor, non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in Jan ‘26 and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3% from Dec ‘25. The US Dept. of Commerce indicated that real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4 ’25, 4.4% in Q3 ’25, and 3.8% in Q2 ’25 after contracting .6% in Q1 ’25. US GDP rates are expected to expand in Q1 & Q2 ’26.
Sources Include: US Labor & Commerce Departments, Domestic Steel Mills, Scrap Processors, Steel Consumers, ISM, AMM, SIMA, SMU, American Iron and Steel Institute, International Trade Administration
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